The impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Chinese housing price
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52152/22.2.50-56(2024)Keywords:
Digital transformation • Intangible cultural heritage • Cultural heritage education • Innovation pathway model • Community engagementAbstract
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) represents a critical determinant of housing market dynamics in increasingly integrated economies, yet its transmission mechanisms to Chinese provincial housing prices remain theoretically ambiguous and empirically underexplored. The research motivation centers on understanding how GEPU influences housing prices through multiple channels: financial transmission via interest rate adjustments affecting mortgage costs and investment decisions, trade channels through foreign direct investment flows altering property demand, and expectation channels whereby uncertainty dampens economic growth and consumer confidence, subsequently reducing housing market activity. This investigation becomes particularly compelling given China's unique institutional framework combining capital controls with managed exchange rates, creating potential buffers against external shocks while simultaneously experiencing growing integration with global markets. Recent events including Sino-American trade tensions and Federal Reserve policy volatility demonstrate GEPU's capacity to generate cross-border spillovers, making systematic analysis essential for understanding contemporary housing market determinants. Employing Structural Vector Autoregression methodology with provincial panel data, the study reveals that while GEPU exerts limited direct influence on housing prices, substantial indirect effects operate through economic growth suppression and confidence deterioration. The analysis uncovers bidirectional causality wherein domestic housing volatility feeds back into global policy uncertainty, challenging conventional unidirectional spillover assumptions and highlighting China's dual role as both recipient and generator of international policy uncertainty signals.
References
Albert, S. (1999) E-Commerce Revitalizes ‘Co-Opetition’, Computerworld, 33(15), pp. 36.
Astley, W. G. & Fombrun, C. J. (1983) Collective Strategy: The Social Ecology of Organizational Environments, Academy of Management Review, 8(4), pp. 576-587. doi: 10.5465/AMR.1983.4284657.
Baggio, R., Czakon, W. & Mariani, M. M. (2013) Managing Tourism in a Changing World. (London: Routledge).
Bagshaw, M. & Bagshaw, C. (2001) Co-opetition Applied to Training—A Case Study, Industrial and Commercial Training, 33(5), pp. 175–177. doi: 10.1108/00197850110398945.
Bengtsson, M. & Kock, S. (2000) “Coopetition” in Business Networks—To Cooperate and Compete Simultaneously, Industrial Marketing Management, 29(5), pp. 411–425. doi: 10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00067-X.
Berglund, K., Johannisson, B. & Schwartz, B. (Eds.) (2012) Societal Entrepreneurship: Positioning, Penetrating, Promoting (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing).
Birkland, T. A. (1998) Focusing Events, Mobilization, and Agenda Setting, Journal of Public Policy, 18(1), pp. 53–74. doi: 10.1017/S0143814X98000038.
Birkland, T. A. (2006) Lessons of Disaster: Policy After Catastrophic Events (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press).
Boivin, C. A. (1987) Public-Private Sector Interactions in Canada, Travel and Tourism: Thrive or Survive, Conference Proceedings, pp. 147-50. Salt Lake City: Travel and Tourism Research Association
Bozeman, B. (2007) Public Values and Public Interest: Counterbalancing Economic Individualism. (Washington D.C.: Georgetown University Press).
Brandenburger, A. & Stuart, H. (2007) Biform Games, Management Science, 53(4), pp. 537-549. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0591.
Carfì, D. & Schiliro D. (2011) Crisis in the Euro Area. Coopetitive Game Solutions as New Policy Tools, Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, 1(3), pp. 23-36.
Chu, S. (2001) [Impact of WTO on Agricultural Industry: Cases of Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pintung Counties]. NPF Research Report. [Chinese]
Contractor, F. and Lorange, P. (1988) Why should firms co-operate? The Strategy and Economics Basis for Co-operative Ventures, in F.
Contractor and P. Lorange (eds.), Co-operative Strategies in International Business: Joint Ventures and Technology Partnerships between Firms. San Francisco: New Lexington Press.
Corbin, T. B. (2010) Policy Entrepreneurs and Focusing Events: Congressional Agenda Setting after Hurricane Katrina (Claremont: The Claremont Graduate University).
Cringely, R. X. (2002) A Peaceful Coexistence, Infoworld, 24(15), pp. 12.
Dussauge, P., Garrette, B. & Mitchell, W. (2004) Asymmetric Performance: the Market Share Impact of Scale and Link Alliances in the Global Auto Industry, Strategic Management Journal, 25(7), pp. 701-711. doi: 10.1002/smj.416.
Ellinger, A. E. (2000) Improving Marketing/Logistics Cross-Functional Collaboration in the Supply Chain, Industrial Marketing Management, 29(1), pp. 85-96. doi: 10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00114-5.
Hamel, G., Doz, Y. L. & Prahalad, C. K. (1989) Collaborate with Your Competitors and Win, Harvard Business Review, 67(1), pp. 133–139.
Harrison, G. W., Rutherford, T. F. & Tarr, D. G. (1997) Quantifying the Uruguay Round, The Economic Journal, 107(444), pp. 1405-1430.
Hathaway, D. E. & Ingco M. D. (1995) Agricultural Liberalization and the Uruguay Round. In World Bank Discussion Papers, pp. 1-24.
Huang, C. (2008) 黃智輝. "我國入會後農産品貿易救濟産業損害之模擬分析-以紅豆産業爲例." 農業經濟叢刊 13(2), pp. 135-164.
Huang, J. C. (2009) 黃建超. "年遊客參與高雄縣鳳荔文化觀光季遊憩體驗滿意度之研究." 東方學報 30, 58-95.
Inkpen, A. C. (1996) Creating Knowledge through Collaboration, California Management Review, 39(1), pp. 123-140. doi: 10.2307/41165879.
Jorde, T. M. & Teece, D. J. (1989) Competition and Cooperation: Striking the Right Balance, California Management Review, 31(3), pp. 25–37. doi: 10.2307/41166568.
Juhel, M. H. (2000) Globalization, Partnerships in Ports: Trends for the 21st Century, Ports and Harbours, 45(5): pp. 9–14.
Katsanakis, I., Kossyva, D. & Vorria, E. (2011) Co-Opetition Strategy in Business Excellence: Confronting the Economic Crisis Proceedings of 14th QMOD-ICQSS Conference on Quality and Service Sciences.
Kelly, G. & Muers, S. (2002) Creating Public Value: An Analytical Framework for Public Service Reform. (Strategy Unit, Cabinet Office, UK Government). Available online at http://www.strategy.gov.uk.
Kingdon, J. W. (1984) Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policy. (Boston, MA: Little Brown).
Kusunoki, K. (2004) Value Differentiation: Organizing 'Know-What' for Product Concept Innovation, in H. Takeuchi and I. Nonaka (eds.), Hitotsubashi on Knowledge Management, (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons).
Kylänen, M. & Mariani, M. M. (2012) Unpacking the Temporal Dimension of coopetition in Tourism Destinations: Evidence from Finnish and Italian Theme Parks, Anatolia, 23(1), pp. 61-74. doi: 10.1080/13032917.2011.653632.
Kylänen, M. & Rusko R. (2011) Unintentional coopetition in the Service Industries: the Case of Pyhä-Luosto Tourism Destination in the Finnish Lapland, European Management Journal, 29(3), pp. 193-205. doi: 10.1016/j.emj.2010.10.006.
Lado, A. A., Boyd N. G. & Hanlon, S. C. (1997) Competition, Cooperation, and the Search for Economic Rents : A Syncretic Model, Academy of Management Review, 22(1), pp. 110-141. doi: 10.5465/AMR.1997.9707180261.
Ma, C. Z. & Chuan, C. H. (2008) 馬財專, 傳晴華. "台灣有機農業生產與勞動過程之初探." 政大勞動學報 23, pp. 57-112.
Mariani, M. (2007) Coopetition as an Emergent Strategy: Empirical Evidence from an Italian Consortium of Opera Houses, International Studies of Management & Organization, 37(2), pp. 97-126. doi: 10.2753/IMO0020-8825370205.
Martin, W. (1996) The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries. (Press: Cambridge University).
McNiel, D. E. (1997) United States' Agricultural Protectionism After the Uruguay Round: What Remains of Measures to Provide Relief from Surges of Agricultural Imports, North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, 23(2), pp. 281-311.
Mintzberg, H. (1978) Patterns in Strategy Formation, Management Science, 24(9), pp. 934–948. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.24.9.934.
Mintzberg, H. &.Waters, J. A. (1985) Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent, Strategic Management Journal, 6(3), pp. 257–272. doi: 10.1002/smj.4250060306.
Moore, M. H. (2013) Recognizing Public Value. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).
Moore, M. (1995) Creating Public Value. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).
Moss, T. & Bannon, A. (2004) Africa and the Battle over Agricultural Protectionism, World Policy Journal, 21(2), pp. 53-61.
Nalebuff, B. J. & Brandenburger, A. M. (1997) Co-opetition: Competitive and Cooperative Business Strategies for the Digital Economy, Strategy & Leadership, 25(6), pp. 28–33. doi: 10.1108/eb054655.
Naoi, M. & Kume, I. (2011) Explaining Mass Support for Agricultural Protectionism: Evidence from a Survey Experiment during the Global Recession, International Organization, 65(4), pp. 771-795. doi: 10.1017/S0020818311000221.
Potter, C.& Burney, J. (2002) Agricultural Multifunctionality in the WTO—Legitimate Non-Trade Concern or Disguised Protectionism?, Journal of Rural Studies, 18(1), pp. 35-47. doi: 10.1016/S0743-0167(01)00031-6.
Rhodes, R. A. W. &Wanna, J. (2007) The Limits to Public Value, or Rescuing Responsible Government from the Platonic Guardians, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 66(4), pp. 406-421. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8500.2007.00553.x.
Ritala, P., Välimäki, K., Blomqvist, K. & Henttonen, K. (2009) Intrafirm coopetition, Knowledge Creation and Innovativeness, Co-Opetition Strategy—Theory, Experiments and Cases, (2009), 64-73.
Schott, J. J. & Buurman, J.W. (1994) Uruguay Round: An Assessment, (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics).
Selin, S. & Chavez, D. (1995) Developing an Evolutionary Tourism Partnership Model, Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4), pp. 844–856. doi: 10.1016/0160-7383(95)00017-X.
Stevens, B. (1988) Co-Operative Activities in Competitive Markets. Tourism Research: Exploring Boundaries. (Montreal: Travel and Tourism Research Association), pp. 139-141.
Tapscott, D. & Williams, A. D. (2006) Wikinomics. How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything (London: Portfolio, Penjuin Group).
Thomason, S. J., Simendinger, E. & Kiernan, D. (2013) Several Determinants of Successful coopetition in Small Business, Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 26(1), pp. 15-28. doi: 10.1080/08276331.2012.761800.
Tidström, A. (2008) Perspectives on coopetition on Actor and Operational Levels,Management Research: Journal of the Iberoamerican Academy of Management, 6(3), pp. 207-217. doi: 10.2753/JMR1536-5433060304.
Ting, W. (2011) 丁文郁. "台灣農民運動." 農業推廣文彙 pp. 281-290.
Walley, K. (2007) Coopetition: an Introduction to the Subject and an Agenda for Research, International Studies of Management & Organization, 37(2), pp. 11-31. doi: 10.2753/IMO0020-8825370201.
Wang, C. H. (2002) The Changing Role of the Agricultural Extension under the WTO Rules - Comparative Analysis in Taiwan and Japan (Yuan: Council of Agriculture, Executive).
Wilkinson, I. & Young, L. (2002) On Cooperating: Firms, Relations and Networks, Journal of Business Research, 55(2), pp. 123–132. doi: 10.1016/S0148-2963(00)00147-8.
Astley, W. G. & Fombrun, C. J. (1983) Collective Strategy: The Social Ecology of Organizational Environments, Academy of Management Review, 8(4), pp. 576-587. doi: 10.5465/AMR.1983.4284657.
Baggio, R., Czakon, W. & Mariani, M. M. (2013) Managing Tourism in a Changing World. (London: Routledge).
Bagshaw, M. & Bagshaw, C. (2001) Co-opetition Applied to Training—A Case Study, Industrial and Commercial Training, 33(5), pp. 175–177. doi: 10.1108/00197850110398945.
Bengtsson, M. & Kock, S. (2000) “Coopetition” in Business Networks—To Cooperate and Compete Simultaneously, Industrial Marketing Management, 29(5), pp. 411–425. doi: 10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00067-X.
Berglund, K., Johannisson, B. & Schwartz, B. (Eds.) (2012) Societal Entrepreneurship: Positioning, Penetrating, Promoting (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing).
Birkland, T. A. (1998) Focusing Events, Mobilization, and Agenda Setting, Journal of Public Policy, 18(1), pp. 53–74. doi: 10.1017/S0143814X98000038.
Birkland, T. A. (2006) Lessons of Disaster: Policy After Catastrophic Events (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press).
Boivin, C. A. (1987) Public-Private Sector Interactions in Canada, Travel and Tourism: Thrive or Survive, Conference Proceedings, pp. 147-50. Salt Lake City: Travel and Tourism Research Association
Bozeman, B. (2007) Public Values and Public Interest: Counterbalancing Economic Individualism. (Washington D.C.: Georgetown University Press).
Brandenburger, A. & Stuart, H. (2007) Biform Games, Management Science, 53(4), pp. 537-549. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0591.
Carfì, D. & Schiliro D. (2011) Crisis in the Euro Area. Coopetitive Game Solutions as New Policy Tools, Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, 1(3), pp. 23-36.
Chu, S. (2001) [Impact of WTO on Agricultural Industry: Cases of Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pintung Counties]. NPF Research Report. [Chinese]
Contractor, F. and Lorange, P. (1988) Why should firms co-operate? The Strategy and Economics Basis for Co-operative Ventures, in F.
Contractor and P. Lorange (eds.), Co-operative Strategies in International Business: Joint Ventures and Technology Partnerships between Firms. San Francisco: New Lexington Press.
Corbin, T. B. (2010) Policy Entrepreneurs and Focusing Events: Congressional Agenda Setting after Hurricane Katrina (Claremont: The Claremont Graduate University).
Cringely, R. X. (2002) A Peaceful Coexistence, Infoworld, 24(15), pp. 12.
Dussauge, P., Garrette, B. & Mitchell, W. (2004) Asymmetric Performance: the Market Share Impact of Scale and Link Alliances in the Global Auto Industry, Strategic Management Journal, 25(7), pp. 701-711. doi: 10.1002/smj.416.
Ellinger, A. E. (2000) Improving Marketing/Logistics Cross-Functional Collaboration in the Supply Chain, Industrial Marketing Management, 29(1), pp. 85-96. doi: 10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00114-5.
Hamel, G., Doz, Y. L. & Prahalad, C. K. (1989) Collaborate with Your Competitors and Win, Harvard Business Review, 67(1), pp. 133–139.
Harrison, G. W., Rutherford, T. F. & Tarr, D. G. (1997) Quantifying the Uruguay Round, The Economic Journal, 107(444), pp. 1405-1430.
Hathaway, D. E. & Ingco M. D. (1995) Agricultural Liberalization and the Uruguay Round. In World Bank Discussion Papers, pp. 1-24.
Huang, C. (2008) 黃智輝. "我國入會後農産品貿易救濟産業損害之模擬分析-以紅豆産業爲例." 農業經濟叢刊 13(2), pp. 135-164.
Huang, J. C. (2009) 黃建超. "年遊客參與高雄縣鳳荔文化觀光季遊憩體驗滿意度之研究." 東方學報 30, 58-95.
Inkpen, A. C. (1996) Creating Knowledge through Collaboration, California Management Review, 39(1), pp. 123-140. doi: 10.2307/41165879.
Jorde, T. M. & Teece, D. J. (1989) Competition and Cooperation: Striking the Right Balance, California Management Review, 31(3), pp. 25–37. doi: 10.2307/41166568.
Juhel, M. H. (2000) Globalization, Partnerships in Ports: Trends for the 21st Century, Ports and Harbours, 45(5): pp. 9–14.
Katsanakis, I., Kossyva, D. & Vorria, E. (2011) Co-Opetition Strategy in Business Excellence: Confronting the Economic Crisis Proceedings of 14th QMOD-ICQSS Conference on Quality and Service Sciences.
Kelly, G. & Muers, S. (2002) Creating Public Value: An Analytical Framework for Public Service Reform. (Strategy Unit, Cabinet Office, UK Government). Available online at http://www.strategy.gov.uk.
Kingdon, J. W. (1984) Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policy. (Boston, MA: Little Brown).
Kusunoki, K. (2004) Value Differentiation: Organizing 'Know-What' for Product Concept Innovation, in H. Takeuchi and I. Nonaka (eds.), Hitotsubashi on Knowledge Management, (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons).
Kylänen, M. & Mariani, M. M. (2012) Unpacking the Temporal Dimension of coopetition in Tourism Destinations: Evidence from Finnish and Italian Theme Parks, Anatolia, 23(1), pp. 61-74. doi: 10.1080/13032917.2011.653632.
Kylänen, M. & Rusko R. (2011) Unintentional coopetition in the Service Industries: the Case of Pyhä-Luosto Tourism Destination in the Finnish Lapland, European Management Journal, 29(3), pp. 193-205. doi: 10.1016/j.emj.2010.10.006.
Lado, A. A., Boyd N. G. & Hanlon, S. C. (1997) Competition, Cooperation, and the Search for Economic Rents : A Syncretic Model, Academy of Management Review, 22(1), pp. 110-141. doi: 10.5465/AMR.1997.9707180261.
Ma, C. Z. & Chuan, C. H. (2008) 馬財專, 傳晴華. "台灣有機農業生產與勞動過程之初探." 政大勞動學報 23, pp. 57-112.
Mariani, M. (2007) Coopetition as an Emergent Strategy: Empirical Evidence from an Italian Consortium of Opera Houses, International Studies of Management & Organization, 37(2), pp. 97-126. doi: 10.2753/IMO0020-8825370205.
Martin, W. (1996) The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries. (Press: Cambridge University).
McNiel, D. E. (1997) United States' Agricultural Protectionism After the Uruguay Round: What Remains of Measures to Provide Relief from Surges of Agricultural Imports, North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, 23(2), pp. 281-311.
Mintzberg, H. (1978) Patterns in Strategy Formation, Management Science, 24(9), pp. 934–948. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.24.9.934.
Mintzberg, H. &.Waters, J. A. (1985) Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent, Strategic Management Journal, 6(3), pp. 257–272. doi: 10.1002/smj.4250060306.
Moore, M. H. (2013) Recognizing Public Value. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).
Moore, M. (1995) Creating Public Value. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).
Moss, T. & Bannon, A. (2004) Africa and the Battle over Agricultural Protectionism, World Policy Journal, 21(2), pp. 53-61.
Nalebuff, B. J. & Brandenburger, A. M. (1997) Co-opetition: Competitive and Cooperative Business Strategies for the Digital Economy, Strategy & Leadership, 25(6), pp. 28–33. doi: 10.1108/eb054655.
Naoi, M. & Kume, I. (2011) Explaining Mass Support for Agricultural Protectionism: Evidence from a Survey Experiment during the Global Recession, International Organization, 65(4), pp. 771-795. doi: 10.1017/S0020818311000221.
Potter, C.& Burney, J. (2002) Agricultural Multifunctionality in the WTO—Legitimate Non-Trade Concern or Disguised Protectionism?, Journal of Rural Studies, 18(1), pp. 35-47. doi: 10.1016/S0743-0167(01)00031-6.
Rhodes, R. A. W. &Wanna, J. (2007) The Limits to Public Value, or Rescuing Responsible Government from the Platonic Guardians, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 66(4), pp. 406-421. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8500.2007.00553.x.
Ritala, P., Välimäki, K., Blomqvist, K. & Henttonen, K. (2009) Intrafirm coopetition, Knowledge Creation and Innovativeness, Co-Opetition Strategy—Theory, Experiments and Cases, (2009), 64-73.
Schott, J. J. & Buurman, J.W. (1994) Uruguay Round: An Assessment, (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics).
Selin, S. & Chavez, D. (1995) Developing an Evolutionary Tourism Partnership Model, Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4), pp. 844–856. doi: 10.1016/0160-7383(95)00017-X.
Stevens, B. (1988) Co-Operative Activities in Competitive Markets. Tourism Research: Exploring Boundaries. (Montreal: Travel and Tourism Research Association), pp. 139-141.
Tapscott, D. & Williams, A. D. (2006) Wikinomics. How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything (London: Portfolio, Penjuin Group).
Thomason, S. J., Simendinger, E. & Kiernan, D. (2013) Several Determinants of Successful coopetition in Small Business, Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 26(1), pp. 15-28. doi: 10.1080/08276331.2012.761800.
Tidström, A. (2008) Perspectives on coopetition on Actor and Operational Levels,Management Research: Journal of the Iberoamerican Academy of Management, 6(3), pp. 207-217. doi: 10.2753/JMR1536-5433060304.
Ting, W. (2011) 丁文郁. "台灣農民運動." 農業推廣文彙 pp. 281-290.
Walley, K. (2007) Coopetition: an Introduction to the Subject and an Agenda for Research, International Studies of Management & Organization, 37(2), pp. 11-31. doi: 10.2753/IMO0020-8825370201.
Wang, C. H. (2002) The Changing Role of the Agricultural Extension under the WTO Rules - Comparative Analysis in Taiwan and Japan (Yuan: Council of Agriculture, Executive).
Wilkinson, I. & Young, L. (2002) On Cooperating: Firms, Relations and Networks, Journal of Business Research, 55(2), pp. 123–132. doi: 10.1016/S0148-2963(00)00147-8.
Downloads
Published
2024-12-08
Issue
Section
Article
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Lex localis - Journal of Local Self-Government
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
The impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Chinese housing price. (2024). Lex Localis - Journal of Local Self-Government, 22(2), 50-56. https://doi.org/10.52152/22.2.50-56(2024)
