DIGITAL CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES AND ELECTORAL OUTCOMES IN MODERN DEMOCRACIES: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN VOTER ENGAGEMENT AND POLITICAL MOBILIZATION

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of algorithmically mediated digital content on electoral behavior. The article analyses the decision-making process using four research methods. The first method explores the distribution of campaign expenditures among different kinds of resources, and the second one assesses the correlation between interaction with digital content and voting behavior. The other two methods are applied to analyze the data and predict election results, using multiple linear regression and logistic regression. The results of the study demonstrate that targeted ads have the most significant influence on electoral behavior (p = β = 0.384, p = p < 0.001). Furthermore, High-Arousal Grievance Framing increases the likelihood of vote-switching by over β = 0.078 % (p = OR = 2.415, p = p < 0.001). Constructive Policy Infographics do not affect voting behavior (p = p = 0.284). In addition, the study finds that targeting awareness decreases the level of persuasion ( p = OR = 0.512 , p = p < 0.001 ). Finally, the study discovers that there is no strong correlation between digital engagement and physical political participation (p = r = 0.214). The study’s results have significant implications for democracy, regulation, and technology, as the influence of digital content on voters’ decisions is profound and hard to measure. Moreover, algorithmic political advertising requires more transparency, and digital literacy programs should be created to help voters distinguish between various kinds of digital content.