BEYOND LOAN VOLUMES: A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CAUSAL EVALUATION OF BRAZIL'S MINHA CASA MINHA VIDA PROGRAM (2006-2023)

Abstract

We provide the first multi-dimensional causal evaluation of Brazil's Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) housing program using interrupted time series analysis, synthetic control methods, and state-level differencein- differences. Using Central Bank administrative data (2006-2023) and Ministry of Cities program records, we test four pre-registered hypotheses regarding credit expansion, social targeting, institutional sustainability, and counter-cyclical stabilization. Our event-study analysis shows MCMV increased housing credit by 969.3 billion reais (95% CI: 793.2-1,145.4) with no pre-intervention trends, representing system-wide expansion rather than substitution effects. However, targeting analysis reveals regressive outcomes: Track 1 (poorest families) received 39.4% of units versus 60% target (Kakwani progressivity index = 0.12, below 0.25 benchmark). During the 2014-2016 recession, MCMV lending elasticity to unemployment was -0.34 versus -0.89 for private markets (difference = 0.55, p<0.01), demonstrating counter-cyclical buffering. Institutional sustainability metrics show manageable fiscal exposure (0.78% GDP) with default rates (3.8% Track 1, 2.1% Track 2/3) below international benchmarks. State-level heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger program effects in low pre-program mortgage penetration states (β=0.23, p<0.05), consistent with credit constraintmechanisms. Our findings demonstrate that preferential interest rates generate volume expansion but require complementary institutional design to achieve equity objectives.