TRIANGULAR DETERRENCE BENEATH THE WAVES: INDIA’S NAVAL NUCLEARIZATION, PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE, AND CHINA’S EXPANDING MARITIME INFLUENCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

This article examines the strategic transformation of South Asia’s maritime security landscape driven by India’s pursuit of a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. The operational deployment of SSBNs such as INS Arihant and the development of long-range SLBMs like the K-4 and K-6 signal India’s intent to project power across the Indian Ocean and secure second-strike capabilities. While these developments may enhance India’s deterrence posture, they pose complex challenges for Pakistan, which has traditionally relied on land-based deterrence and conventional military balance. Pakistan now faces the emergence of a concealed and survivable nuclear threat beneath its maritime borders, raising concerns over crisis instability, command and control vulnerabilities, and the risk of miscalculation. In response, Pakistan is adopting a multidimensional strategy that includes asymmetric deterrence, naval modernization, development of nuclear-capable cruise missiles, and active participation in regional diplomacy and multilateral forums. The article also highlights broader implications for global non-proliferation norms, environmental safety, and Indo-Pacific power dynamics. It concludes by emphasizing the need for strategic foresight, doctrinal clarity, and cooperative maritime governance to prevent escalation and preserve regional stability.