An attempt to measure the impact of financial crises on the interconnectedness and integration of emerging and developed financial markets

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of financial crises on the integration/disintegration of financial markets and how the global financial crisis spreads to other countries' markets. It relies on a sample of ten developed and emerging markets, divided between Europe, America, and Asia, namely: France, Italy, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada, the United States, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, and Mexico. The study data consists of the closing prices of the main market indices, extracted from the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) database. The study period covers the period from September 3, 1989, to December 31, 2014, with a monthly frequency of 303 observations. This period was chosen to obtain a sufficient number of observations to conduct the necessary tests for studying integration across sub-periods. This period also witnessed several financial crises. To address the research problem, we used a set of statistical models: cointegration tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study concluded that financial crises directly affect the degree of interconnection between markets, often leading to increased volatility and instability. Financial crises also stimulate market integration; that is, financial markets become more integrated during and after crises due to the increased correlation between these markets during periods of turmoil. Furthermore, we found that the US market readily transmits financial crises to the largest global financial markets, whether developed or emerging, regardless of their economic strength. Because the US market has a strong relationship with developed markets, these markets are highly susceptible to its effects, unlike emerging markets, which are characterized by a degree of stability and are therefore less affected.