ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR AND PARTY CONSOLIDATION IN RAIPUR LOK SABHA CONSTITUENCY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE 2019 AND 2024 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Abstract

The study looks at the evolution of electoral behavior in the Raipur Lok Sabha constituency of Chhattisgarh by comparing the 2019 and 2024 general elections. It focuses on changes in party vote shares, electoral margins, vote concentration, and factors influencing voter choice. According to an analysis of the official electoral data, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gained ground between the two elections. Its vote share rose from 60.01% in 2019 to 66.19% in 2024, while the Indian National Congress (INC)'s fell from 35.07% to 29.94%. As a result, the winning margin went up from 348,238 to 575,285 votes. The total vote share of the BJP and INC also rose from about 95.08% to 96.13%, indicating that electoral support is becoming increasingly concentrated between the two main parties. The study also accounts for voter-level factors such as party preference, candidate image, government performance, development concerns, national leadership, and socio-demographic characteristics. The findings show a trend towards party consolidation rather than towards electoral fragmentation in Raipur. The study concludes that electoral behavior in the constituency is increasingly influenced by the dominance of the two major parties, party identification, candidate evaluation, and concerns about governance and development, which are emerging as important factors in voter choice.