INDEXING PAPUA SEPARATISM VULNERABILITY TO DETERMINE PRIORITY SCALES FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Abstract

Background:The government and relevant stakeholders have implemented various policies to address separatist movements in Papua, Indonesia; however, separatist political maneuvers persist.

Objective: This study aims to develop a separatism vulnerability indexing model to support accurate and informed decision making.  

Method:This study employs a descriptive qualitative approach, with data sources derived from interviews, observations, and literature review. Data analysis was conducted using Creswell  analytical model with the assistance of NVivo 12 software.

Findings:The results reveal that separatism vulnerability is shaped by entrenched development gaps, structural inequalities, governance failures, Melanesian identity politics, digital disinformation, and the intergenerational reproduction of separatist ideology. Limited healthcare access, weak local food security, and inadequate dissemination of the uti possidetis juris principle further deepen public distrust toward the state. These structural, social, ideological, and institutional factors collectively generate a high level of vulnerability affecting Papua  stability.

Conclusion: This study emphasizes that a quantitatively constructed indexing of Papua’s separatism vulnerability is necessary to translate complex structural, social, ideological, and institutional factors into measurable indicators, enabling policymakers to objectively assess risk levels, compare vulnerabilities across regions and social groups, and determine priority scales for public policy and state security in a rational, accountable, and evidence-based manner to prevent conflict escalation in an early and sustainable way.